Winnability is all that matters

Liberals pick a leader, and the winner is…

By Ian Connerty

Leadership contests are always dominated by one question: “Who can win?”

And Mark Carney looks like a winner.

In a recent opinion poll, Carney is even with the Conservatives at 37 per cent and he isn’t even leader.

As the 400,000 Liberal members decide how to vote, this answers their number one question.

Their number two question is: “Who is best to deal with President Trump” and conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and Carney are in a virtual tie (22-20 per cent).

The Conservatives have dropped 30 per cent since Trump was elected.

Knowing that 70 per cent of Canadians dislike Trump, the Liberals have spent the last 2 years calling Poilievre “Trump Lite,” and it stuck.

As for the pending leadership vote, Carney has a sizable lead on the ground thanks to former Trudeau staff and organizers.

Trudeau’s main man Gerald Butts was one of the first to announce support for Carney and this was quickly followed by Trudeau’s Chief of Staff Katie Telford.

They then convinced 60 Liberal Cabinet and caucus members that Carney was a winner.

Carney vs Poilievre:
“The multimillionaire who hangs out
with other multimillionaires
versus an adopted child who
has succeeded despite his humble beginnings.”

Liberal party members usually vote the same way as their Members of Parliament who control local riding associations.

Each association has been assigned 100 votes and with 338 ridings 33,800 votes are possible. Carney has about 6,000 already before voting starts.

The first candidate with half the votes cast wins.

Meanwhile, his only realistic opponent, former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, has 25 caucus supporters or about 2,500 votes.

She has run a highly visible campaign, in the media every day, trying to convince Liberals that she didn’t really support all the things she supported over the last 10 years.

Many Liberals are angry at her for saying nasty things about Trudeau when she was dumped as Finance Minister instead of making a graceful exit like many others who lose their Cabinet jobs.

She now claims to be the one who will bring change despite being Trudeau’s right-hand person all these years.

Carney on the other hand has been an “Invisible Candidate” giving few carefully selected media interviews and making fewer policy statements.

He comes off like a bank manager or an accountant, and not many people think of them as potential Prime Ministers. He is clearly not comfortable outside of a corporate boardroom.

His campaign bio leaves out much, including being a key member of Klaus Schwab’s elite DAVOS organization and being Chair of Brookfield Asset Management that left Canada along with its $900 million in holdings just before Carney became a politician.

His peek-a-boo campaign will have its biggest tests in the two upcoming leadership debates on February 24 and 25.

The French language debate will be a particular challenge with his “high school French”.

Carney will likely win anyway and will become our third unelected Prime Minister in recent history.

Will he outlast John Turner’s 79 days or Kim Cambell’s 132 days?

Or will he call an election and last longer?

Facing Pierre Poilievre in an election will be the biggest test of his life.

The multimillionaire who hangs out with other multimillionaires versus an adopted child who has succeeded despite his humble beginnings.

*****

Mr. Connerty is a writer, editor and publisher, and a former senior advisor to federal and provincial Liberal Cabinet ministers.