Ford looks to win big, but there are risks
Ontario’s snap election call
By Ian Connerty
Premier Ford looks like he will win again, which will be the first time in 67 years that a Premier has won 3 majority governments. Leslie Frost was the last Premier to do it, in 1958.
Ford has considerable advantages going into the February 27 election.
First his opposition is virtually unknown. More that half of Ontario voters don’t even know the names of the Liberal and NDP leaders.
As well, opinion polls the day the election was called showed Ford with 43 per cent of the vote, which would translate to 88 seats, up from his current 79.
And most importantly, he is running against President Trump, who has threatened to impose tariffs on Ontario manufacturing, which would devastate the Ontario economy and by Ford’s own estimate, would see up to 500,000 jobs lost.
Polls also show that 82 per cent of Canadians dislike Trump.
This looks good for Ford.
However, winter elections have very low turnouts, and a low turnout favours both the NDP and Liberals, who have a better ground game.
Even in the last election Ford won, only 43 per cent of eligible voters showed up at the polls. That number will likely be less in February, especially if there is a snowstorm.
Also, Conservatives rely more on both social and traditional media, rather than boots on the ground.
In fact, in one election a conservative friend of mine was told NOT to knock on doors or organize to get the vote out on election day. He lost.
Even conservative media, like the Toronto Sun and 640 Radio, are saying this is a needless election because Ford already has a strong mandate with 79 seats in the Legislature and the opposition have promised they will support any measures to save Ontario jobs.
Ford would win if an election were held today, but campaigns count. And if the idea of a needless election takes hold, Ford may be in trouble.
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Ian Connerty is a writer, editor and publisher, and a former senior advisor to federal and provincial Liberal Cabinet ministers.
