Ottawa has lost control of itself: Matt Gurney’s “stream of thought”

Writer Matt Gurney felt compelled to tweet his entire thought process about the Ottawa convoy on February 5th. It makes such an interesting read, RWN has formatted it as a single article for readers.

So here’s where I think we are, this Saturday evening.

1. Ottawa has lost control of itself. Most of the crowd seems non-violent, even cheerful, but the city isn’t in control of its territory, so the general non-violence is really just a lucky break.

2. The tactical situation for Ottawa is grim. Having lost control, it can’t get it back without a confrontation, and it isn’t confident it would win that confrontation. I think Sloly knows this. I think he’s trying to convince his bosses.

3. Ottawa is going to need to be “rescued” by outside help. Again, Sloly knows this. That’s why he’s already talking about the military. I’d think a police effort with massive reinforcements is more likely than a military response, but I’m not too confident in that prediction.

4. In the main, though, while this isn’t Jan. 6, per se, Canada doesn’t have effective control over its capital. It can get it back. It will. But for now, it’s lost it. Our government doesn’t have control of the capital city. Super.

The arrival of the Bouncy Castles, rented by Truckers for Ottawa kids to enjoy on February 5th, might have been official Ottawa’s first real inkling that they have lost control of the city. Photo: Odessa Orlewicz/FB

5. As far as I can tell, no one knows what to do about this. I think some of them have clued in to the problem (but not all). But I think a lot of our leaders might still be stuck in the bargaining stage, if they’re even that far.

5.1. Before I was a journalist I was planning to be a military historian (before I realized that academia was somehow an even more doomed and futile career path than, uh, print media). I’m still a hobbyist. What we’re seeing now is paralyzed command and control.

5.2. Sometimes command-and-control is paralyzed because communications go down. Sometimes the critical officers are killed or incapacitated. Hell, sometimes headquarters or a ship’s bridge takes a direct hit. I don’t think that’s what this is. This is a reality shock.

5.3. I mean that the critical people are so surprised by what is happening that they are unable to fully perceive that it has even happened or imagine a response. This is a classic manifestation of a “outside context problem.” (Look that up.)

5.4. Shock and confusion seems most manifest in Ottawa’s government, but I’m not sure if anyone at the provincial or federal level really gets this yet either. I have had some indication that they are starting to figure it out. But they are days and days behind.

5.5. I suspect that in the coming days people will start getting on the same page, and then we can actually expect to possibly see some action. But I don’t think enough of the politicians even share a common understanding of the problem yet to start on a solution.

6. Even if the crowds remain mostly — and yes, I know not entirely — peaceful, what’s happening right now in Ottawa is absolutely catastrophic both for the rule of law and for the long-term security of Canada. Everyone sees this. This is a massive failure of the state.

6.1. This failure is being witness not just by the citizens, who are realizing that they are on their own and the government is helpless, but also by our enemies, foreign and domestic, who see the same thing.

7. If there is any good news to be had, it’s that notes were clearly taken by other Canadian jurisdictions, too. Other convoys in other major cities, including my hometown of Toronto, have been handled very differently. I imagine that will be the new rulebook going forward.

8. There is probably still a chance to resolve this non-violently. (Mostly.) But that window is closing. I think the danger of a large violent incident in Ottawa is growing fast.

9. I am interested to see action by citizens who realize the local officials have been defeated. Court action and lawsuits are interesting. Vigilante action is dangerous. I have no analysis or guesses here except that both will happen. And then we’ll all see.

10. This or something like it was probably inevitable. And I think we will see more. How the next few days go in Ottawa will set the tone for how those future incidents go.

11. Political and policing careers are ending before our eyes. I don’t know if the right careers will be the ones that end.

12. The Canadian political class is weak and naive. The entire purpose of it is dividing up the spoils in a country that is considered to be rich, stable and peaceful as just the natural, unwavering order of things. It’s not. Our leaders and whole governments are clueless.

13. We cannot vote our way out of this mess. There isn’t a critical mass of serious public safety and national security thinkers in any of our parties, governments or institutions (with very limited, insufficient exceptions). These muscles have simply atrophied from misuse.

14. I think we are in deep, deep shit.

(I will now review this thread, see the obvious typos and then feel shame.)